Yesterday was just a little College Football appetizer. Today’s games are the salad course. Then on Saturday, we get the meal we’ve been waiting to feast on since January.
Let’s start with some salad games:
Utah State at Michigan State: this is not an expert opinion, just that of bad gambler…but when a very good college team plays a very bad college team they win by a lot. The Spartans are good, the Aggies? I think Utah State is the Aggies. They Stink. The Spread is -23.5 in favor of State. Sparty wins this game like 38-10 and that’s almost keeping it close for Utah State. Bonus play is the under: the total is 52.5 and a 38-10 final only gets them to 48 points.
Colorado State at Colorado: I think that the Buffs are better than they get credit for, while I expect a regression year for the Rams. The line opened with the Buffs as a 6 point favorite, that’s now up to a seven and a hook (-7.5) I loved it at -6 and I still am ok with it at -7.5. I just think the Buffs are at least ten points better. This line would have to be -12 before I would even think about the Rams side of it.
The Main Course:
Michigan at Notre Dame: The Wolverines are +1.5 in South Bend. Look I expect Michigan to win, even without their star WR. So if you want to give me a point and a half, I’ll take that. In Harbaugh we trust. The over/under of 46.5 seems just about where it should be, both teams play defense, but sometimes you get a couple pick 6’s and the defense turns the under-game into an over-game. I’m not saying we see that here….it just makes me stay away from the total. Still, it feels very 24-17 to me.
Auburn vs Washington in Atlanta: Hard to call this a neutral site game when Auburn’s campus is a stone’s throw from Atlanta and the Huskies are coming from Seattle. Nonetheless, it’s considered neutral.
I want to break this one down real quick.
Auburn has a front 7 as good as just about anyone in the country. The last time Jake Browning saw a front seven like that was vs Alabama in the CFP. It did not go well for Jake in that game. That worries me if I want to play Washington.
Auburn probably has the edge at QB, I do think Jarett Stidham is probably a little better than Browning. Also worries me if I want to play the Huskies.
Here’s where the Huskies have the advantage:
They have the more experienced OL and STUD Running back running behind him. It’s rare that the Auburn Tigers play a game outside the SEC where they don’t have the advantage at RB but there isn’t a running back on Auburn’s roster with the skill level of a MIles Gaskin.
Gus Malzhan is a good coach, but Chris Peterson is a great coach and he’s had all offseason to prepare for this game. These things worry me if I want to play Auburn. I’m also worried that the UW defense is also very good. They might have the best secondary in the country. Good enough to cause problems for the Auburn offense. Which like I said before has an inexperienced OL.
The Huskies are getting two points. So what’s the play? It’s probably a stay away, my gut says Auburn because this is going to be a pro-Auburn crowd, while my head says the Huskies because of those two points and Peterson.
I’m going with the Huskies because that’s who I want to root for. I don’t feel great about it.
I’m gonna post this right now b/c the Salad Games have time-sensitive info. I’ll be back later with more picks for the games on 9/1, 9/2 and 9/3.