The Mahomes Contract has Produced Innumerable Bad Takes.

Pat Mahomes signed the richest deal in NFL History (A 10-year extension worth 503 million dollars)

People have been coming out of the woodwork talking about how this deal will make it impossible for the Chiefs to compete while paying one guy a ton of money.

Screen Shot 2020-07-09 at 12.42.09 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-09 at 12.42.16 PM

Let me give the basic bitch tweet from a ton of talking heads in the sports world. It goes something like

“Yeah Mahomes is great but the Chief won’t be able to pay anyone else, the team around him is gonna suck WHAAAAAAH.”


First, let us examine the immediate cap hit.

Screen Shot 2020-07-09 at 12.54.11 PM

So despite being highly paid guys like Goff and Wilson put their teams in a worse financial position.

The Goff contract stinks because Goff is not that good. Wilson is very good and the Seahawks can live with that deal, they are still a playoff team. It’s not a problem to pay a good QB a ton of money, it is only if you pay a bad QB a ton of money that will kill the franchise. Right now nobody is better than Mahomes.

Next year the Chiefs will bring almost the same team back to the field, they are not like the Rams who had to cut guys they just signed like Todd Gurley to pay for Goff. Tyreek Hill, Tyrann Mathieu, Travis Kelce are all signed up for at least two more years. Mahomes’ two best weapons and the team’s best defender are not going anywhere.

Second, let us examine where the NFL was 10 years ago in terms of QB deals.

The highest-paid QB was Peyton Manning at 15.8 million per year. He was far above the next three highest-paid QBs who were McNabb, Sam Bradford, and Matt Stafford.

10 years later what kind of QB does 15 million dollars buy?Screen Shot 2020-07-09 at 1.26.28 PM

So ten years later 15 million doesn’t even get you, Jacoby Brissett. What was once the paycheck for Peyton in his prime is now something an average QB can scoff at.  I’m not saying that in 2030 45 million per year will be what they pay middle-tier.  QBs but it is very possible. One thing is for sure by the end of that deal a lot of QBs will be making more money than Mahomes, but I highly doubt those players will be better QBs than Mahomes.

So if early in the deal the cap hit isn’t terrible, and late in the deal other contracts will surpass it and the cap will rise, when exactly does the contract prohibit the Chiefs from building around Mahomes…it doesn’t.

Football Weekend Recap: Our Beaks have been Bathed.

Loyal readers rejoice, “Wet the Beak” is back with a vengeance. We took our lumps in the college game last week, but week one of the NFL was the cure. The Atraincorp Syndicate went 7-1 with our 8 NFL bets. My buddy PBM went 5-1 in his picks.

We both got the same game wrong Jags (-3) @ NY Giants and I don’t even feel bad about that game the final score was 20-15 with the Giants coming up just centimeters on a 2pt conversion that would have given us a push. My take away from that game is that the Jags still have a very solid defense, Bortles does a good job as a game manager and Eli Manning is close to being done. As good as Saquon Barkley is, and he is very good, I think the Giants might regret not taking Sam Darnold. Eli has this season and then at the most one more before he’s washed completely.

Winners Recap:

Pitt -4.5 @ Cleveland: We got the rare NFL tie football game 21-21. That’s a win if you bet the underdog Browns who honestly blew several chances to win outright. The only thing that sucks about this tie is the fact it does nothing to help our Brown over 5.5 wins bet, which makes me remember how much Vegas loves ties. My takeaways are that the Browns and Steelers talent level is very close but coaching still favors the Steelers. Tyrod will be a fine QB who is an even better fantasy QB because of his running ability. Josh Gordon looks like he’s still got the big play ability we remember.

San Fran +6.5 @ Minnesota: We had this pegged, San Fran did score a low number and Minnesota did cover 24-16. Just as I thought Jimmy G got rattled in a hostile environment vs a very good defense. My takeaways are you still need to wait on Jimmy G to see what kind of player he is and Minnesota is great but Cousins isn’t THAT much of an upgrade over Case Keenum.

Buffalo +7.5 @ Baltimore: Also had this pegged, this was a lock. I hate to throw that word out because I feel like it jinx’s me…but LOCK city. Nathan Peterman is a trash QB and on the road, he’s even worse. They can’t block for him. When a bad QB gets no blocking, the team loses and loses big. Will Vegas get the memo and start buffing the bill’s point-spreads? No real takeaways as I did not feel the need to watch any of this game.

Dallas +3 @ Carolina: This line had us scratching our heads, then I remembered the Cowboys have a gigantic fanbase of idiots who like to gamble and it all made sense. Our fade the Cowboys strategy worked, let’s see if Vegas makes an adjustment. This game wasn’t as close as a 16-8 final would have you believe.

Bears +7.5 @ Green Bay: Chicago should have won outright, I just hope this isn’t the loss that keeps them out of the playoffs. 24-23 is a real gut punch when you were up 20 points. The defense is for real, Mitch Trubisky needs work but he can manage this team to the playoffs in 2018. I have faith. I would like to see him look a little less rattled at times…more like a Sam Darnold.

Jets +6.5 @ Detroit: I was a little worried after Darnold threw a pick 6 on his first NFL pass. My faith in the Jets looked to be built on shaky ground. Then Darnold calmed down and showed the cool demeanor that gave me faith in him in the first place. He’s a puppy for sure, but he’s got those big paws that tell you the future is bright. In his first start, Darnold showed me he has all the tools to be a franchise guy.

Rams -4.5 @ Oakland: Early on I was a tiny bit worried but then the Rams showed the talent disparity between the two teams. Todd Gurley is the best RB in the NFL. The Rams run a 3 WR set with Woods, Kupp and Cooks almost exclusively and it seems to work for them. The Oakland under 8 wins off to a good start.

Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 12.17.39 PM

Okay, what were some of the other things I was looking for:

Pat Mahomes Eye Test: He passed it and the hype is real. The Bears traded up from #3 to #2 to draft Trubisky when Mahomes and Watson were still readily available. I’ll be watching the careers of these three guys very closely. I feel better about KC than I did before, they should be a playoff team.

Saquon Barkley Gamebreaker Test: He passed it by scoring a 68 yard TD vs one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

Andrew Luck is Back Test: He made all the throws, passed with flying colors, the rest of his team is not very good.

Is Sam Bradford still an NFL Players test: Fail Fail Fail. Sam Bradford is beyond a washed up QB, he’s a giant pussy who seems to be scared of his own shadow. My teenage girl cousins could tackle him. Arizona needs to put in Rosen like yesterday.

How much will Case Keenum improve the Broncos test: He makes them a real team. Manny Sanders is gonna feast with Case Keenum at QB, why didn’t I draft him in Fantasy Football? I don’t know if the Broncos will make the playoffs in a tough division but they will be a tough out every week. They have the talent to contend for a playoff spot.

Teams, I didn’t learn much about: Seahawks and Texans. I don’t know what to make of these teams. I need another week to watch them play. @Denver and @New England are tough ways to start the season. The Seahawks play Monday Night in Chicago, neither team will want to start 0-2 in that one.

More Football to Come, Stay Tuned on

-Atrain Out

NFL Storylines Peaking Our Interests.

As we roll into another NFL season, we here at the ATrain Sports Corporation have gotten together to discuss the upcoming NFL Storylines. What we are excited about, what to watch for, and what unknown players could be household names by the end of the year.

Hard Knocks Effect and the Cleveland Browns:

The Browns would be a major storyline even if they were not the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks. Which is somehow in its 13th season? I’ll admit I haven’t watched Hard Knocks in a long time. It’s the same thing every year. Not this season, this season the Browns have me enthralled.

This Brown’s team is unique/exciting to me for several reasons.

  1. The improvement at QB. When a team makes a huge leap from one season to the next, it’s almost always because of elevated play at the QB position. Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield are both capable NFL QB’s and they unlike most other NFL teams could lose the starting QB to injury and not fall off at all production wise. I think this factor alone makes them a candidate for the over. Six wins seem not at all out of the question for this team.
  2.  Gregg Williams and Todd Haley coordinating under Hue Jackson. This is the most hilarious three’s company of Head Coach and Coordinators of ALL TIME. It’s not even up for debate. If the Browns totally implode and go under their win total it will be because these three could not co-exist. Just the fact that a team that went 0-16 is returning the head coach is bananas, Hue is still in Cleveland by some great miracle and for the first time has a team with the talent to go on a run.
  3. New WR Core: There are so many questions revolving around Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway…on paper this group has the talent to be top tier but we haven’t seen Josh Gordon in YEARS and Callaway is almost as big of a concern. Tight End David Njoku is solid. The Rumor is Clevland is also a potential landing spot for Dez Bryant. Honestly if the sign Dez, it worries me for Josh Gordon. You only need Dez if you are very worried that Gordon won’t be able to play.

I kinda wish this team wasn’t on Hard Knocks because now they won’t be flying under the radar. All the focus and attention worries me but Tyrod and Baker are such professional’s that the spotlight might not matter.

Rookie QBs/QBs in new situations.

The QB turnover in the offseason was tumultuous as the position becomes even more important.

Alex Smith in Washington: Fan’s of middling QB’s will finally get to answer the age-old question of who is better Kirk Cousins or Alex Smith? If you listen to the whispers out of Redskins training camp the answer is Alex Smith. Take that info with a grain of salt, but I do think I agree.

Case Keenum in Denver: Denver is another team that should go from trash Quarterback play to halfway decent with the addition of Case Keenum. Keenum is still limited in his ability to go deep, that’s not gonna change but with a good defense and decent weapons, he’s shown he can win. He should have that in Denver.

Teddy Bridgewater/Sam Darnold in New York: ATrain predicts: Darnold is the best player and he should win the job, if he doesn’t, he will by the end of the season. The Jets like the Browns have multiple QB’s and should one guy get hurt, they can survive it. I like the Jets over this year. #WettheBeak

Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield in Cleveland: Already talked about these guys, Tyrod is the present, Mayfield the future.

Jimmy Garopolo in San Fransisco: He did play 6 games in San Fran already but he’s on this list because there was no pressure in those games. Now he’s the guy, the pressure is on and the expectations are real, how will Jimmy perform.

Pat Mahomes in Kansas City: Andy Reid QB Guru says Mahomes is his guy, who am I to doubt the Red Walrus?

Josh Rosen in Arizona: Sam Bradford is made of paper, the odds he plays more than 4 games are less than 1% in my mind. This was a guy who couldn’t handle a pass rush at all last season. I expect Rosen to play and play a lot, I have not seen any Arizona preseason so I have no gauge on Rosen yet at all.

Josh Allen in Buffalo: Huge Hands, Big Arm must fight off the AJ McCarrion Crows for the starting job first.

Kirk Cousins in Minnesota: He’s got a team full of weapons, a great defense, fully guaranteed contract, and no excuses. It’s Super Bowl or bust for this Vikings team.

Second Year QB’s: Watson and Trubisky:

It’s no secret I was mad when the Bears took Trubisky over Watson, I’ve since changed my tune and I believe in Trubisky…but I still worry sometimes we took the wrong guy. Both these guys come into 2018 with a lot to prove. For Watson, he wants to prove his one abbreviated season was just a flash of things to come.  For Trubisky he needs to show that his pedestrian Rookie season was due to a lack of weapons and coaching…and not because he lacks the ability.